Ethereum’s latest rebound has brought the $10,000 bull-market debate back into focus, but crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says ETH has not yet confirmed a higher-timeframe trend reversal. In a May 7 market update, the analyst argued that Ethereum remains trapped below major resistance until it can reclaim the $2,800 area and prove the move with a successful retest.
The core of Kevin’s argument is simple: ETH has rallied from its local low near $1,700, but the move still resembles a counter-trend bounce rather than the beginning of a durable bull-market phase. He said market sentiment has shifted from bearish to more neutral as price has climbed into resistance, a pattern he sees frequently during relief rallies.
“Is the bull market back? Are we back in a higher time frame uptrend? Is ETH going to 10K right now? Is the bottom of the bear market in?” he asked, framing the debate now dominating crypto social media. His answer was cautious. While some traders are already calling for a new uptrend, Kevin said the chart has not yet delivered the confirmation bulls need.
Analyst Says Ethereum Still Needs $2,800 Breakout
For Kevin, the level to watch is $2,800. Until Ethereum gets back above that zone, moves toward $2,900 or $3,000, and then retests reclaimed moving averages as support, he said the market structure remains unresolved.
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“Until ETH gets back above $2,800, until it then comes back up to $2,900 or $3K, maybe gets rejected there, comes back down and retests these key moving averages, the golden pocket holds it and starts to ascend higher. Until that happens, it’s still a higher counter-trend rally within a higher time frame downtrend,” he said.
He pointed to Ethereum’s interaction with the 100 EMA, 21-week EMA, and 20-week SMA, saying ETH had moved into that resistance cluster and was already showing signs of rejection. Several daily candles, he noted, carried large upside wicks, which he interpreted as weakness in the rally rather than clean accumulation.
The analyst also questioned whether Ethereum’s current structure resembles a major bottom. In his view, prior bullish reversals showed more constructive accumulation, including rounding structures, stronger retests, and cleaner transitions back above key averages. The current move, by contrast, has been “lackluster,” with low volume, muted money flow, weak spot inflows, limited whale money flow, and insufficient upside expansion.
Bitcoin Still Leads The Signal
Kevin stressed that Ethereum should not be analyzed in isolation. Even for ETH, he said Bitcoin remains the first chart to watch when assessing whether crypto has truly shifted back into a higher-timeframe uptrend.
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“When it comes to doing altcoin analysis, the first thing you should be doing is looking at the Bitcoin chart. Second thing you should be doing, looking at the USDT dominance chart. Third thing you should be doing, looking at the altcoin pairing chart against Bitcoin and then from there you can then analyze the USD pair by itself,” he said.
That framework matters because, in his view, Ethereum’s breakout case depends not only on ETH reclaiming resistance, but also on Bitcoin confirming a broader market reversal. He noted that Bitcoin is testing its 200-day SMA, making the coming sessions important for the broader crypto trend.
Kevin said he remains willing to pivot if the charts change. A valid bullish setup, in his framework, would include a breakout above major moving averages, a pullback that holds them as support, and a new advance from there. That would mark the kind of trend change that could justify more aggressive upside positioning.
At press time, ETH traded at $2,283.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
