Grayscale is using cash flow as a metric to screen DeFi tokens following the crypto market’s downturn since the beginning of the year. In its report “Guide to Buying the Dip: Valuing Crypto With Cash Flows”, updated on June 16, 2026, Grayscale uses Aave as a case study for DeFi lending valuation and suggests that Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple are showing signs of relative value based on price multiple analysis.
10/ The big picture: crypto is repricing from narrative → fundamentals
Protocols with real revenue, disciplined capital allocation, and transparent token economics are outperforming
Grayscale flags $HYPE, $AAVE, $UNI, $SKY, and $MAPLE as showing strong relative value on this… pic.twitter.com/4E9PlFRAT4
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) June 17, 2026
Grayscale’s Cash-Flow Valuation Thesis
Grayscale places cash flow at the center of valuing crypto assets with clear economic activity, especially DeFi protocols that generate fees from lending, derivatives trading, DEXs, or stablecoins. For this group, familiar tools from traditional finance such as DCF, price multiples, and comparable analysis become more relevant.
A notable point in Grayscale’s approach is whether success at the protocol level translates into value at the token level. Large TVL or volume is not enough; tokenomics, governance, and capital allocation determine whether that fee stream supports token holders or remains limited to protocol activity.
Aave is the primary case study of the report. Grayscale estimates the protocol could generate approximately $60 million in earnings in 2026, with a fair value market cap for AAVE of around $1.2–1.5 billion if applying a fintech multiple of 20–25x. In a base case with additional regulatory clarity and adoption of tokenized assets, Grayscale presents a fair value of around $175 for AAVE within one year.
The Five Tokens in Focus
Grayscale names Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple as projects that fall within the same cash-flow valuation framework, but represent different sectors of DeFi: derivatives, lending, DEXs, stablecoins/CDPs, and institutional credit. DeFiLlama data show that this group collectively generates significant fees, though value accrual mechanisms and levels of alignment with the token vary.
DeFi cash-flow metrics of five projects. Source: Grayscale Research, DeFiLlama.
Aave
Aave is the primary case study of the report and the clearest example within the DeFi lending group. This protocol features large liquidity scale, transparent financial data, and a value accrual mechanism much clearer than previous-generation governance tokens.
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid represents the perp DEX group that is generating fees at the largest scale in DeFi. The project’s fee source primarily comes from derivatives trading, making Hyperliquid one of the most prominent cases in the cash-flow assets group monitored by Grayscale.
Uniswap
Uniswap is one of the oldest and most influential DEXs in the Ethereum ecosystem, now expanded to multiple other networks. The protocol generates a large amount of fees from swapping activities, but for UNI, the key points to monitor are the fee switch, buybacks, or burns implemented through governance.
Sky
Sky, the ecosystem developed by MakerDAO, represents the stablecoin and collateralized lending sector. SKY’s narrative is tied to the demand for stablecoin borrowing, on-chain collateral assets, and mechanisms such as buybacks or staking rewards.
Maple
Maple is a smaller but notable name in the institutional credit sector. Compared to Aave, Maple has a narrower scale, but its model focusing on institutional credit gives the protocol a distinct profile within the DeFi lending group.
Market Context
Grayscale’s research comes after a period of sharp crypto market correction since the beginning of the year, when investors are looking not only for deeply discounted tokens but also for assets with clearer valuation fundamentals. For DeFi, the question of “buying the dip” is gradually shifting to: which protocol is generating fees, how sustainable is that fee portion, and does the token actually benefit.
DeFiLlama records approximately $52.2 million in fees within 24 hours, $1.67 billion in 30 days, and $24.91 billion in a year on its fees dashboard. That scale helps cash-flow analysis become a more practical filter for DeFi, instead of just looking at TVL, incentives, or cyclical narratives.
For protocols like Aave, Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the key point to watch is not just the price decline of the token but their ability to maintain fees, revenue, and mechanisms to transfer value back to token holders.
Risks and Caveats
Despite the applicability of certain traditional valuation frameworks, DeFi tokens are not stocks. Token holders do not have the same legal rights as shareholders, and a protocol’s fee stream can be allocated very differently depending on governance, tokenomics, and treasury policy.
The risks for each model are also distinct. Aave faces lending risks and DAO regulatory risks; Uniswap depends on the fee switch; Hyperliquid is sensitive to derivatives trading activity; Sky relies on stablecoin and collateral demand; Maple bears institutional credit risks. Additionally, DeFi still faces smart contract risk, oracle risk, liquidity, and governance changes.
What Comes Next
Grayscale’s report positions Aave as the clearest litmus test for valuing DeFi using cash flows: the protocol must maintain fees, retain liquidity, and turn treasury policy into measurable value accrual for AAVE.
For Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple, the questions are similar but unique to each model: will perp fees hold up when volume cools down, will UNI’s fee switch progress further, can Sky’s stablecoin demand maintain momentum, and can Maple expand institutional credit without increasing credit risk. These will be the deciding factors on whether cash-flow valuation is merely a new perspective after a downturn or becomes a more durable valuation framework for DeFi tokens.
