Welcome back to the Now Newsletter. I’m Matt Medved.
Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high above $109,000, but the timeline isn’t exactly euphoric. The prevailing mood is FOMO and jokes about no one caring or being overexposed in altcoins. But that disconnect isn’t just on crypto Twitter.
Last night, I caught The Chainsmokers playing a secret set at The Edge, a 100th-floor skydeck overlooking the New York skyline. As many of you know, I previously founded Billboard Dance, so the dance music world was home for years before I dove into web3. I’ve known Alex Pall and Drew Taggart since their early days playing NYC bottle service clubs — we came up together during their meteoric rise. So anytime we link, it’s a bit of a reunion with all the music industry players who were part of that era.
“Matt only goes out when the crypto market is up,” joked TAO Group partner Jonathan Schwartz.
He’s not wrong. Nightlife’s a surprisingly good barometer for where mainstream sentiment around crypto is at. At the peak of the NFT boom, everyone wanted to know what projects to buy. After FTX collapsed, they were asking if I’d found a new job. Last night, crypto barely came up at all. When I mentioned that Bitcoin was approaching all-time highs, most people seemed surprised.
It struck me because I’ve lived through the cycles, and I’ve never seen such a stark disconnect between price action and sentiment. Yes, the price is up, but the cultural volume is still low. Despite arguably the most bullish fundamentals crypto has ever seen— a friendly administration, rising institutional inflows, and growing regulatory clarity — the broader public still isn’t paying attention. Retail hasn’t truly re-entered the arena.
Why? Let’s break it down.
Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High. Why Doesn’t It Feel Like It?
For starters, Wall Street enthusiasm hasn’t reached Main Street.
Unlike previous cycles, where a frenzy of media attention drove retail buying that helped propel Bitcoin to new heights, the past year’s rise has been quietly driven by institutional capital.
Much of the excitement is happening behind closed doors: on tradfi trading desks, in wealth management firms, and across institutional vehicles like spot ETFs. But on the surface, things still feel subdued. Prices may be rising, but the social and cultural indicators of a full-blown bull run remain muted.
“We’re not truly in price discovery yet,” advisor and podcast host Aubrey Strobel tells Now Media. “Bitcoin’s all-time high doesn’t account for inflation—adjusted for dollar debasement, we’re still underwater. That’s why you’re not getting calls from your friends and family yet.”
“The real euphoria won’t hit until we break above $110K with conviction,” she adds. “It’s been a quiet rally so far, driven largely by institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and the growing number of Bitcoin access vehicles being raised behind the scenes. Retail hasn’t arrived yet.”
no texts and calls from family & friends higher.
— Aubrey Strobel (@aubreystrobel) May 21, 2025
Retail’s also in a very different spot than it was during the last bull run, which played out against the backdrop of pandemic lockdowns and stimulus checks. In 2025, most households are dealing with rising debt and tighter budgets. U.S. household debt just hit $18.2 trillion, with over $1.18 trillion on credit cards. The average household is carrying more than $8,940 in card debt, and with the Fed keeping interest rates elevated, borrowing isn’t getting any cheaper.
It’s not exactly the ideal setup for speculative investing. Back in 2021, retail had cash to play with and the confidence to take risks. Even if people are aware of the rally, most don’t have the same disposable income or risk appetite.
But are people even tuned in? Investor Dan Held doesn’t believe so.
“Bitcoin is priced in for those who are paying attention, and 99% aren’t paying attention yet,” Held tells Now Media.
“Bitcoin is priced in for those who are paying attention, and 99% aren’t paying attention yet.”
DAN HELD
Part of that is due to a shift in how crypto is covered. Mainstream media has matured along with the industry. The space has become more regulated, more serious, and more financialized. Spot ETFs, SEC cases, and policy debates are leading the narrative now, not overnight millionaires or viral JPEGs.
As I wrote in our newsletter earlier this month, the lack of a breakout cultural narrative is also at play here. Love them or hate them, NFTs brought creators into crypto and onboarded a wave of new users. They gave the space a visual identity and a story people could actually engage with beyond price action. They also offered something else: a real shot at making money, even for the uninitiated. From flipping PFPs to minting art, the entry points felt accessible in a way that today’s PVP memecoin melee doesn’t.
Memecoins may be dominating the timeline and absorbing attention and liquidity within crypto, but they haven’t crossed the cultural chasm like NFTs did in 2021. And the big moments haven’t been wins for most retail buyers. According to Chainalysis, around 764,000 of the 2 million wallets that bought President Trump’s $TRUMP memecoin lost money — mostly small holders. Unsurprisingly, a handful of early wallets captured the majority of profits
“In general, the less excited people are about a new all-time high, the more room to go up in the short term.”
AMANDA CASSATT
Retail also shows up for different reasons, and often sees the space through a completely different lens than crypto purists.
“My hairstylist always asks me what I think of XRP,” Amanda Cassatt, founder of Serotonin, tells Now Media. “She holds it. I never bought it. Based on what she’s motivated by, she was right. That’s why I don’t give quotes about how retail doesn’t understand crypto markets. I’m motivated by completely different things from them, like wanting to usher exciting technology into the world.”
Ultimately, the muted reaction might actually be bullish.
“I think euphoria is negatively correlated with short-term upwards motion,” Cassatt adds. “In general, the less excited people are about a new all-time high, the more room to go up in the short term.”
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