As headlines related to Quantum Computing loom over Bitcoin, some research papers have broken down how real the threat currently is.
Bitcoin Network Has 6.26 Million Tokens With Exposed Public Keys
Hardware entrepreneur Rodolfo Novak has made two X articles discussing what research papers on Quantum Computing could reveal about how real the threat is to Bitcoin.
Quantum Computing is an emerging technology that leverages laws of quantum physics to solve problems that are extremely difficult for classic computers. It’s been an “upcoming” technology for a while now, but lately, it has been coming up in news more often.
In the context of Bitcoin, many speculate that Quantum Computers could be used to threaten the network in two ways. The first is via deriving a wallet’s private key from its public key. If successful, this can allow the attacker to gain access to the wallet’s balance.
That said, the threat only applies to wallets that have their public keys exposed. Currently, there is a combined 6.26 million BTC sitting in such wallets, including Satoshi’s coins. That’s equivalent to approximately 31% of the cryptocurrency’s supply in circulation.
The other potential threat that Quantum Computing poses to Bitcoin is by offering a significant speedup to the task of the miners. Novak has argued, however, that this application of Quantum Computing is unfeasible. According to a 2025 paper, the energy requirements for Quantum mining Bitcoin are so great that power can be measured relative to the Sun’s. “To mine Bitcoin with a quantum computer, you would need roughly 3% of the Sun’s total energy output,” noted Novak.
While Quantum mining is a pipedream, the other threat still remains. That said, it doesn’t mean that it’s here or even close to arriving. Novak has highlighted that breaking BTC’s cryptography requires the equivalent of factoring a 1,300 digital number. So far, Quantum Computers haven’t come close to achieving such a feat.
As the below table shows, Quantum Computing has also failed to deliver on major predictions until now, with the exception of one target.
The major computing predictions and how they are going | Source: @nvk on X
While Quantum Computing could still be some distance away, Novak has stressed that it’s important to upgrade Bitcoin. In the past, the cryptocurrency has already pushed out major upgrades, but progress can be slow. Work on a quantum resistant proposal called BIP-360 has already been underway.
The real threat to BTC may not even be Quantum Computing. Historically, many cryptographic systems have eventually been broken by classical mathematical models alone. Novak noted:
This is the actual reason Bitcoin should adopt alternate cryptographic schemes. Not because quantum computers are coming — they might never arrive. But because relying on a single cryptographic assumption for a $2 trillion network is exactly the kind of risk that serious engineering addresses proactively.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $72,600, up nearly 6% over the last 24 hours.
Looks like the price of the coin has shot up in the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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