Bitcoin is steadily pushing towards $60,000 and is trading close to its February 6 wick bottom. The crypto market sentiment is now back in extreme fear, and there have been multiple questions on when Bitcoin will eventually register a correction bottom.
Crypto pundit Ardi believes the answer may be found less in the current candle and more in the calendar, especially since we are still in the second quarter of the year, while past bear market lows have usually arrived much later in the year.
Bitcoin’s Bottom History Has A Favourite Season
Crypto pundit Ardi, posting on X alongside a weekly Bitcoin chart that encompasses over a decade of price history, laid out a pattern that has held without exception across every prior market cycle.
According to the pundit, Bitcoin has always bottomed in the fourth quarter during its bear market years, and that makes the current price action more difficult for bulls to defend from registering another bottom. The point is that the year is still in the second quarter, meaning Bitcoin would need to hold above the $60,000 region for another six months to break from the historical pattern.
The Bitcoin weekly candlestick chart below captures this trend very clearly. Bitcoin’s 2013 cycle correction lasted 413 days before bottoming in November 2014, the 2017 bear cycle correction lasted 378 days before the December 2018 low, and the 2021 cycle bear market lasted 364 days before BTC bottomed in November 2022.
The current correction is at 245 days from the October 2025 high of $126,000, leaving room for more time if the market continues to mirror previous bear-market structures.
Consensus On Q4 2026
Ardi is not the only market watcher pointing to late 2026 as the more likely period for a cycle bottom. Popular crypto analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, also noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still in play, given that the current cycle top in October 2025 arrived within one week of when it historically does. His base case for the current cycle low is October 2026.
Other analysts have reached similar conclusions through different methodologies. Ali Martinez pins October 2026 as the likely bottom based on the average duration of prior bear markets. Xanrox places the bottom in September or October, with recovery expected to begin in November or December.
CryptoQuant points to October through December, coinciding with what would be a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score, while technical signals, including the Bitcoin Repetition Fractal Cycle, are also pointing to October 2026 as the month everything will change.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $62,950 after a 6.2% decline over the past 24 hours. The drop has pushed BTC to its lowest level in four months, leaving the cryptocurrency at risk of losing the $60,000 support as outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to weigh on market sentiment.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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