Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is arguing that Bitcoin’s addressable market could eventually surpass gold’s, currently sitting around $20 trillion, if geopolitical fragmentation continues accelerating.
The claim isn’t abstract: Hougan’s April 2026 memo frames Bitcoin not just as a store of value competing with gold, but as a politically neutral settlement asset for a world where the dollar-dominated financial system is fracturing at the seams.
This matters right now because Bitcoin rose 12% between February 27 and April 10, 2026, while the S&P 500 dropped 1% and gold fell 10% during the same window of elevated Iran-U.S. tensions. That’s not a coincidence Bitwise is willing to ignore. The question is whether it’s a durable signal or a one-off anomaly dressed up as a thesis.
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What Does ‘Bitcoin Beats Gold’ Actually Mean?
The ‘digital gold’ comparison gets thrown around so often that it’s lost most of its meaning. Here’s what it actually implies: gold is valuable primarily because no single government controls it, it’s scarce, and it has a 5,000-year track record as a store of value. Bitcoin makes the same pitch – fixed supply of 21 million coins, no central issuer – but adds two things gold can’t offer: it crosses borders instantly, and it settles without a bank.
Hougan’s thesis goes one layer deeper. He frames Bitcoin’s valuation as two bets stacked on top of each other. The first is the standard digital gold bet: Bitcoin captures some fraction of gold’s $20 trillion market as institutions diversify.
The second is what he calls an out-of-the-money call option – the speculative possibility that Bitcoin becomes a neutral settlement layer for countries that have been cut off from, or are deliberately avoiding, the Swift system.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran to require ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in Bitcoin, FT reports. pic.twitter.com/6yoIEys139
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 8, 2026
That second bet is where the Iran angle enters. Reports surfaced of a proposal, flagged by the Financial Times, that an Iranian oil export spokesperson floated a $1-per-barrel toll in Bitcoin for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Whether that ever materializes is beside the point. The fact that it’s being proposed at all tells you something about which direction the pressure is pointing. You can follow the broader geopolitical context around US-Iran tensions and Bitcoin’s response to sanctions pressure for more background on why this dynamic is gaining traction.
Why the Conflict-Driven Bitcoin Thesis Has Real Evidence Behind It
The Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 provided the world with an unplanned case study of what happens when a major economy is cut off from the dollar system. Russian yuan settlement in trade went from under 2% pre-invasion to nearly 40% by early 2024. Russia-China bilateral trade now settles over 99% in rubles and yuan. De-dollarization isn’t a fringe theory anymore – it’s documented trade data.
Bitcoin’s behavior during the current Iran-U.S. tension window adds to that picture. While the broader market sold off, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $75,000 and held ground in a way that gold – traditionally the conflict hedge of choice – did not. That’s a meaningful divergence. Gold dropped 10% in the same window. If Bitcoin is supposed to be the lesser store of value, it didn’t act like one.
In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative. https://t.co/9ECmJy3aAK
— carlisle (@0xcarlisle) April 14, 2026
Institutional capital is paying attention. ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products have continued during periods of geopolitical stress, suggesting that large allocators are at a minimum treating Bitcoin as a hedge worth holding alongside, not instead of, traditional safe havens. Hougan’s conclusion – that if Bitcoin functions as both store of value and settlement asset, a $1 million price target becomes a plausible baseline rather than an outlier – sounds extreme until you do the math against gold’s total market cap.
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