The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at earnings season and what top management teams are saying about the economy.
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Deep Dive
We’re a few weeks into earnings season, and many of the market’s most important companies have already reported. Big banks, credit card companies, consumer-facing brands, and most of the Magnificent 7 have all weighed in — and we’ve been combing through the conference calls for key insights.
On Consumers & Gas Prices
Jeremy Barnum, CFO at JPMorgan: “In the end, the story remains the same, which is a resilient consumer that’s doing fine despite higher gas prices.”
Charlie Scharf, CEO of Wells Fargo: “Consumers are spending more than a year ago, which includes spending more on gas, but they haven’t slowed spending on everything else. We have seen historically that it often takes consumers several months to reduce their spend levels on other categories to adjust for higher oil prices.”
Brian Niccol, CEO of Starbucks: “We haven’t seen a lot of the macro effects trickle into consumer behavior as it relates to Starbucks.”
Chris Suh, CFO of Visa: “The highest spend band continues to grow the fastest. Across our volume, both discretionary and non-discretionary spend remained strong. We do not see signs of the lower-spent consumer weakening in our volumes.”
Global/Macro
Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America: “We also are mindful of all the risks out there, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, including implications for the energy market, inflation, and growth…To date, these impacts have been measured and absorbed by the economies here and around the world.”
Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard: “Looking at the macro picture, the economic foundation remains generally supportive with healthy underlying consumer and business spending. However, the backdrop remains uncertain, driven by geopolitical tensions, which has put some pressure on cross-border travel.”
Andy O’Brien, CFO of ConocoPhillips: “The impacts of the lost supply is going to start to become more apparent…Despite efforts that are ongoing to manage demand, we are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June-July timeframe.
Big Tech on AI and Massive Capex Investments
Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet: “It’s clear that our AI investments and full-stack approach are driving performance across our business…Cloud accelerated again this quarter due to strong demand for our AI products and infrastructure. Revenue grew 63%, exceeding $20 billion for the first time, and our backlog nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to over $460 billion.”
Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon: “Starting with Amazon Web Services, growth continued to accelerate, up 28% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters…It’s very unusual for a business to grow this fast on a base this large. And, the last time we saw growth at this clip, AWS was roughly half the size. We’ve never seen a technology grow as rapidly as AI. Amazon is already a leader, and companies continue to choose AWS for AI.”
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Diving Deeper — Valuation
S&P 500 earnings estimates have continued to increase this year. Just look at the way expectations have grown since the start of the year. Earnings are currently expected to grow 17.8% in 2026 and 16.1% in 2027. Energy is expected to lead the way at 49%, followed by Tech at 43% and Materials at 35%.
While strong growth from Energy — and to some extent, Materials — may not be too surprising, Tech’s outlook is particularly noteworthy. The sector accounts for roughly one-third of the S&P 500’s weighting. Even better, all 11 sectors are expected to contribute, with each projected to generate positive earnings growth this year. If that holds, it would mark the first time since 2021, when earnings surged during the post-Covid recovery.
Risks and The Bottom Line
The market still faces plenty of risks, from inflation and Fed policy to geopolitical escalation and a potential economic slowdown. But if investors are wondering why stocks have been able to shrug off higher oil prices and renewed conflict in the Middle East, earnings are a good place to start.
Over the long run, stock prices follow earnings. That does not mean markets can ignore macro risks forever, and earnings can absolutely be the catalyst for deeper drawdowns when expectations start to crack. But for now, investors keep returning to a simple foundation: profits are still growing, estimates remain resilient, and that gives the market something solid to lean on.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
