Bull, Base, And Bear Scenarios Unpacked

Ethereum (ETH) has struggled through the first quarter of the year and the opening stretch of the second, but it has managed to hold a crucial line near the $2,000 mark. 

A new report from market expert Sam Daodu breaks down three potential paths for ETH for the remainder of 2026, with each scenario tied to catalysts that could push the network’s leading altcoin back above $4,000.

Bullish Pathway For Ethereum

Daodu’s analysis starts with the price action. Ethereum, he notes, has been trending downward since the start of the year, with only a short-lived recovery. ETH began 2026 around $3,100, later sank to a low of $1,743 in February—its weakest point since early 2023. 

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After that, the token has spent much of the year moving sideways between roughly $2,000 and $2,400, suggesting consolidation rather than a clear rebound. A key driver in the report is the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which Daodu says could be the deciding factor for whether ETH revisits the $4,000 level during 2026. 

In his bullish scenario, Glamsterdam is assumed to launch on schedule in June. The upgrade would cut gas fees by 78.6% and lift throughput to as much as 10,000 transactions per second. 

At the same time, the news around the upgrade is expected to accelerate Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, and the report also assumes Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $90,000. With those conditions in place, Daodu suggests ETH could move above $4,000 in the third quarter, and finish the year between $5,000-$7,500.

ETH Could Retest The February 2026 Low

In the base case, the story is more subdued. Daodu expects Glamsterdam to ship, but with no strong immediate market reaction. ETF inflows remain positive but slow, and Bitcoin is assumed to rise above $85,000 without delivering a decisive breakout that would strongly re-ignite risk appetite. 

Under this scenario, Ethereum is still projected to clear $3,000 in the third quarter, then test $4,000 in the last stretch of 2026. The year-end outcome, however, is more restrained: ETH would close between $3,000 and $4,200. 

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The bear case is built around delays and macro pressure. Daodu assumes Glamsterdam is either pushed back until the last quarter of the year or launches with deployment bugs. 

He also adds a more risk-off environment by projecting that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000, driven by inflation data or renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with ETF outflows returning. 

If those assumptions play out, ETH would likely fail to hold current support and break below $2,085. From there, the report suggests Ethereum could retest the February 2026 low near $1,743, and then end the year at or below today’s price. 

In this bearish scenario, the idea of Ethereum moving past $4,000 would likely shift into a 2027 discussion rather than remaining a 2026 target. For now, the leading altcoin trades at $2,134. 

Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com