It has been a rocky start to the year for Tesla. The stock has shed approximately 9% since the beginning of the year, and first-quarter delivery numbers fell short of both analyst expectations and management’s own targets. Investors are now laser-focused on updates regarding robotaxis, autonomous driving, and the Optimus robots. The central question for the market is whether Tesla is truly the company of the future Musk promises, or simply an overpriced automaker.
Tesla is set to release its quarterly results on April 22. Wall Street expects first-quarter revenue between $22 and $23 billion and earnings of roughly $0.37 per share. The company delivered about 358,000 cars to customers in the first quarter, despite analysts expecting over 365,000. However, Tesla ultimately produced more than 408,000 cars, causing inventory to grow while competitive pressure on margins remains relentless.
Tesla as a Tech Firm, Not Just a Carmaker
For many investors, Tesla represents more than just a car manufacturer. It is trying to position itself as a tech firm of the future sitting at the center of physical AI. It is investing massively in autonomous driving, the robotaxi platform, AI robots, and energy storage systems. Deliveries in the energy segment fell in the first quarter both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
It will be interesting to watch the development of the robotaxi. Last quarter, Tesla announced plans to expand its robotaxi service to seven new U.S. cities in the first half of 2026. So far, however, Tesla does not offer rides in these cities. Management’s comments on this will be vital.
News regarding Terafab and its associated costs will also be important. The Terafab project, an AI data center with a capacity of up to one terawatt, could cost Tesla tens of billions of dollars in total. Musk’s team has already contacted a number of suppliers. These costs significantly exceed the current size of the automotive segment.
Lastly, we will be watching for information regarding an IPO of Musk’s company SpaceX. Tesla’s problem is that bets on a distant future do not sit well with short-term disappointment. If the first-quarter financial results do not provide at least some reassurance that the core automotive business is holding the line, investors may reconsider whether they are willing to keep paying for this story. Tesla remains one of the most closely watched and most controversial stocks in the world.
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