Bitcoin price held a razor-thin range between $76,000 and $77,000 on Monday, recording just a -0.05% change at $76,797.74 while the broader crypto market buckled under iran geopolitical pressure.
Over $300 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass, with long traders absorbing the bulk of those losses. The catalyst was blunt: President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had directed U.S. troops to prepare for a “full, large scale assault” on Iran if an acceptable deal is not reached, after delaying a planned Tuesday strike at the request of Gulf leaders.
BREAKING: President Trump says he has called off a US “Military attack” on Iran which was scheduled for tomorrow after leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE called him and asked him to “hold off.”
Trump has instructed the US Military to “be prepared to go forward with a… pic.twitter.com/OQbBYuEP5u
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 18, 2026
The central question now is whether Bitcoin can hold its current support zone-or whether the next leg down is already loading.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped into “Extreme Fear” territory, a reading that historically marks either a capitulation floor or the beginning of a deeper breakdown-context matters enormously here.
Trading volume on Bitcoin surged 30% over the prior 24 hours, which sounds bullish on the surface but in a sideways market typically signals indecision rather than conviction.
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Can Bitcoin Price Hold $76,500 Amid Iran News, Or Is a Drop to $65,900 Next?
Bitcoin’s current structure is fragile but not yet broken. The $76,000–$77,000 band has become the battleground, with analysts at CryptoQuant identifying $65,900–$70,500 as the projected range for this cycle’s bottom, using the Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator-a tool that maps how long different groups of holders have been sitting on their coins to identify market peaks and troughs.
“If $70,500 holds, we’ll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range. If it breaks, we’ll need to re-evaluate lower support structures,” CryptoQuant analyst stated. Separately, market commentators have warned that a daily close below $75,000 could accelerate a move toward $60,000, suggesting the next thousand dollars of downside carries outsized psychological weight.
Reading the Bitcoin Bottom via HODL Waves
“Our predicted price range for this cycle’s bottom is $65.9K–$70.5K. If $70.5K holds, we’ll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range.” – By Sunny Mom
Complete analysis ⤵️https://t.co/rnE3CrI990 pic.twitter.com/bUebkCmoRw
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 18, 2026
On-chain data offers a counterpoint to the bearish tape. On-chain analytics firm Santiment noted that wallets holding at least 100 BTC have risen 11.2% year-over-year, climbing from 18,191 to 20,229 wallets-each representing at least $7.7 million in holdings at current prices.
“Historically, rising whale wallet counts are viewed as a sign that key stakeholders still have confidence in Bitcoin’s future value and scarcity,” Santiment stated. That’s not a price catalyst on its own, but it does suggest the smart-money cohort is accumulating into weakness rather than exiting.
If Bitcoin defends $75,000 on a daily close, open interest resolves to the upside, and a de-escalation in the Iran situation triggers a relief rally back toward $82,000–$85,000.
However, a break below $70,500 invalidates the current cycle bottom thesis and opens the door to CryptoQuant’s lower target of $65,900, likely triggered by either renewed Iran escalation or a broader risk-off wave hitting equities.
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